2015 ROYALS—Patience Is a Virtue
August 20, 2015—Red Sox
The Royals lose 4-1 and in his post-game press conference Ned Yost refuses to blame fatigue for his team’s loss. The Royals had a rain delay and a long game the night before in Cincinnati and did not get to their hotel until 6 AM.
Even if a manager thinks it’s true, it’s considered bad form to blame a loss on fatigue. It sounds like an excuse and diminishes the other team’s accomplishment: “We would have beaten you if we weren’t so tired.”
And to be perfectly honest, some ballplayers can manage to get to their hotel at 6AM without a long game the night before.
Meanwhile…
Boston’s Designated Hitter, David Ortiz, says the Royals should be congratulated on their success and the patience that made that success possible. Ortiz says that would never happen in Boston: the fans and media are much too impatient.
Boston fans wouldn’t wait for Alcides Escobar to hit, they wouldn’t wait for Mike Moustakas to figure out there’s a left side on a baseball field, they wouldn’t wait for Eric Hosmer to learn that swinging harder doesn’t always mean hitting the ball farther.
But even though Ortiz compliments Kansas City fans on their patience, it wasn’t all that long ago that some impatient Kansas City fans and media members wanted Dayton Moore fired.
Every season some general manager, manager or coach gets fired, not because they deserve it; they get fired to appease a vocal and negative fan base and the people in the media who get that negative fan base stirred up.
Somebody’s got to go.
I once heard a story about a manager being called into his GM’s office and being told: “It’s me or you and it ain’t me.” The team wasn’t winning and someone had to be sacrificed to keep the fans happy.
And if a team isn’t winning there’s a good chance they’re not scoring a lot of runs, so hitting coaches are a popular target; it shows the fans you mean business, fire the guy responsible for the offense, that’ll buy everyone else some time.
And so will a distraction.
Back when George Brett was brought in as the Royals hitting coach, Ned Yost’s firing seemed like a real possibility and people were openly discussing who the next manager might be. The Royals brought in Brett, the media reacted like a German Shepard that had just seen a squirrel run by and everyone turned their attention in that direction long enough for the team to pull it together, win some games and save Ned’s job.
Brett was hitting coach for less than two months, but by the time he quit the crisis was over.
Want more evidence?
Since Ned Yost has been the Royals manager all kinds of coaches have been fired; Ned’s gone through hitting coaches, the pitching coach, base coaches and bench coaches.
Firing a coach buys a losing team time: fans and the media feel like the team is doing something to improve—even though the next coach might actually be worse than the guy who just got fired—and then everyone waits for the dust to settle to see how things work out. In the meantime, maybe the team will put a few wins together and nobody else will have to walk the plank.
But all those Yost firings came when the Royals were losing. They’ve played coaching staff musical chairs on occasion, but now that the team is winning, no coaches get fired.
August 24, 2015—Orioles
The Royals beat the Orioles, Kris Medlen gets his second win and at the end of the day, Kansas City has a record of 76 wins and 48 losses. Previously dubious fans are starting to believe and the Royals bandwagon is getting crowded.
I’m now getting emails from Royals fans about the team’s “spirit” or “moxie” or “fight” and here’s a sample:
“Continuing the line of thought in your article about factors that Sabermetrics doesn't do a very good job of taking into account, I would add another one. You touched on it when you said teammates, but I would go further and say the team itself and team spirit. It seems clear to me that last year the Royals' run to the WS was more than could be reasonably expected, given the individuals making up our team. The collective group just outplayed the sum of its individual talents. I'll call this team spirit, which can eat times go into a positive feedback loop. And it seems to me that the Royals are right up at the top of the teams in U.S. professional sports, not just MLB, in this "team spirit" category. They support each other so much and help one another rise to challenges. This team spirit is probably impossible to quantify, but it is real.”
Not long after I get the above email, the same reader sends me a link to a USA Today story by Bob Nightengale on the same subject. Here’s how the article starts:
“In a sport where the desire to quantify every movement only grows with each season, it is a sabermetric aficionado’s worst nightmare.
You can’t measure it. You can’t define it. You can’t put a number on it.
We’re talking about clubhouse chemistry, and the culture that can raise a major league team to extraordinary heights without having the biggest payroll or most talent.
“It’s really undervalued,’’ St. Louis Cardinals veteran starter John Lackey told USA TODAY Sports, “especially in today’s world with all of the numbers guys.”
We can put all kinds of numbers on players’ talent, from RBI to WAR, to ERA to FIP, but when it comes to the heart and soul of a clubhouse, there remains no measuring stick.”
This is only a theory, but it’s a really good theory because I stole it from the guys who play, coach or manage Big League baseball:
Good teams believe they will win.
Good teams think anything bad that happens is an aberration and they can overcome adversity if they keep hustling and grinding away. Good teams look for signs that they will win—a big hit, a great defensive play, an error by the opposition—and believe that when one good thing happens, it’s just the first of a string of good things that will follow.
Bad teams believe they will lose.
Bad teams think anything bad that happens is not an aberration and no matter what they do, they’re not going to win, so they just go through the motions. Bad teams look for signs they’re going to lose—a strikeout, a great play by the opposition or an error by their team—and believe that when one bad thing happens, it’s just the first of a string of bad things that will follow.
The 2015 Kansas City Royals are a good team.
August 26, 2015—Orioles
Johnny Cueto is in the middle of a lousy outing: five innings, eight hits (including three home runs) and six earned runs. After Cueto gives up a home run, another reporter asks me what I’m seeing; is there any indication that Cueto is hurt?
First off, unless Johnny throws a pitch and his arm flies off and lands in the third base dugout, I’d have no idea if he has a physical problem. It’s easy (and often erroneous) to conclude that any pitcher who struggles has something wrong with his arm.
We look at radar gun readings because we understand them and not much else.
And we may not even understand them: any ballplayer will tell you that 92 MPH with movement is better than 96 MPH without. Even so, if a guy is a few miles an hour down in velocity we sometimes assume he’s hurt when it’s really a mechanical issue.
To make things even more complicated, pitchers sometimes hide injuries from their own teams and trainers; so the idea that reporters can diagnose a physical ailment while sitting six floors above the field and eating a tub of nachos is fucking ridiculous.
But Cueto’s inconsistent performances have everybody worried; is he hurt or does he have a mechanical issue?
Few of us are smart enough—and that includes me—to wonder about pitch selection. It’s like tax legislation: it’s complicated, so we ignore it. With Cincinnati, Cueto put up a 2.62 ERA in 2015; in Kansas City it will wind up at 4.76.
And one of the factors in a pitcher’s performance is the guy behind the plate.
August 27, 2015—Orioles
Yordano Ventura gets the win and a recurring media theme is he’s being helped by the presence of Johnny Cueto. We like the image of the more experienced Cueto mentoring the younger Ventura, but it might be a case of Ventura deciding to show everyone he’s the number one pitcher on the staff, not Johnny.
Whether it’s the nurturing or the competition, the pitcher who narrowly avoided a lengthy stay in the minors throws six shutout innings.
This is getaway day—the day a team leaves for a road trip—and closer Greg Holland is tossing some stuff in a bag as he prepares for a trip to Tampa Bay. I ask if he has time for a question and Greg says as long as the question isn’t a dumb one.
I offer to leave immediately.
Greg’s kidding—I’m not. I have great faith in my ability to ask a question that sounds smart in my head and dumb once it leaves my mouth. Hang on a second and you’ll see what I mean.
Until this game Greg had not pitched in five days and has been described as having a “cranky” arm. Now here’s the brilliant question I come up with: “They say you have a cranky arm; what the fuck does that mean?”
(See? You just can’t teach these kinds of skills in journalism school; you have the instincts of an investigative reporter or you don’t.)
Greg thinks about it for a moment and says “cranky arm” means “general stiffness.” In the past Holland has said nobody is 100 percent at this point in the season and that includes him—but Holly has been something less than the Greg Holland we’ve been used to seeing and tonight was a little alarming.
Holland comes in to pitch the ninth inning; the Royals are up 5-1 on the Orioles. Before the inning is over it will be 5-3. Greg gives up three hits and two runs and that raises some questions.
The first batter Greg faces is Steve Pearce. Holland threw him three fastballs and one slider, but all three fastballs registered 90 MPH on the radar gun. When I point that out to Greg, he reacts with mock awe: “I was throwing 90? That’ll get you drafted!”
Me: “If you’re eighteen.”
Greg says if he’d known he was only throwing 90 MPH he would’ve tried to throw harder (once again he’s kidding…I think) but if he tried to throw harder he might’ve given up four runs instead of two. Before the inning was over Greg did throw harder and he was hitting 95 and 96 on the radar gun, but in his mind, the fastball wasn’t the problem.
Holland says Jonathan Schoop doubled on a good pitch and it was—Schoop served a soft lob down the right field line that nobody could get to in time. Other than that, the problem was hung sliders. Caleb Joseph doubled on one and Manny Machado hit a single on another.
I ask Greg if he was happy with his stuff by the end of the inning and he says yes. That leads me to ask if the five days off might have meant he wasn’t fully loosened up and ready to go early in the inning.
Greg’s admits he doesn’t really know if the five days off had anything to do with throwing 90 MPH at the beginning of the inning, but by the end of the inning he was throwing 96 and liked his slider.
To be honest, I’ve got no idea what’s going on with Holland; he’s gone from a 1.44 ERA last season to a 3.92 this season. I don’t know if that means he’s hitting the downward slope of his career or it’s just an aberration or he’s got a physical problem.
I’m not sure Greg Holland knows either.
August 28, 2015—Rays
The Royals beat the Rays and finish the night 30 games over .500; Royals fans still go online and find something to complain about.
Lorenzo Cain—2015
I’m leaning up against the Royals bat rack when Lorenzo Cain comes up and starts pulling bats out of the rack and taking half cuts with each one; Lorenzo’s searching for the right bat.
Lorenzo tells me he broke the last bat he really liked and is looking for a new “gamer”—the bat he’ll take to the plate.
We talk about what makes a good bat; Lorenzo likes a bat that’s balanced, not one with the weight down toward the end of the barrel. We also talk about bats that have that feel; the ball jumps off the barrel after contact. We then talk about hitting the ball to the opposite field; Lorenzo once again admits he’s a better hitter when he looks to go the other way.
That’s when I drop my George Brett story on him: “Y’know who believes hitting the ball the other way gets you out of a slump? George Brett. I hit with him once a week the winter before he retired.”
It’s an impressive story until I admit the truth: it didn’t take me long to figure out why George wanted to hit with me—he needed someone to stand by the pitching machine and keep it from jamming.
Lorenzo starts laughing: “Now that’s funny.”
Lorenzo picks up that night’s candidate for his game bat and heads up the dugout steps. I tell him if he gets any hits that night, I’m taking credit; if Lorenzo takes an 0-fer, that’s on him. Lorenzo says if he gets any hits that night he doesn’t care who gets credit; in the Big Leagues, hits are damn hard to come by.
Eric Hosmer—2015
Eric Hosmer can reel off the sports clichés with the best of them—stuff like: that’s-a-good-team-over-there, we-play-hard-for-27-outs and we-believe-every-guy-in-this-clubhouse-can-help-us-win.
Hos knows how to deal with the media.
And the media crowds are getting bigger; the Royals are becoming a national story and some of the big-name national reporters are now cruising the clubhouse, looking for quotes and Eric Hosmer is always a good quote.
After the other reporters get what they need and leave, I ask Hos if dealing with the media is getting old. Eric says dealing with the media is part of the job, but he’s been getting the same question for weeks: with such a big lead, how do the players stay energized?
Get past the clichés and Hos says it’s the Big Leagues; staying energized isn’t all that hard.
In the Big Leagues, someone is trying to take your job every night. Someone is trying to make you look bad every night. If you’re playing well, big crowds are there to watch every night. Eric feels it just isn’t that hard to stay energized: if you want to stick around, you better bring it every night.
Good for Hos.
When I get asked how deep the Royals will go in the playoffs (like I have any clue) I usually respond that Kansas City fans ought to be happy the team is even going to the playoffs. I sat through a lot of bad baseball to get to where we are today: a very good team that plays competitive baseball night after night.
Even though they could, the Royals haven’t put it in neutral and coasted; they’re still playing hard and winning close ballgames.
August 29, 2015—Rays
The Royals beat Tampa Bay 6-3 and Mike Moustakas has three hits. Moose is on a tear; he’s had 17 hits over the last 10 games. On August 20th his average was .269; eight games later it’s .285.
They say it’s a game of adjustments and here’s why:
Once Moose started putting up numbers by going to left field, teams quit shifting him. Mike then went back to pulling the ball and his numbers started to decline. But once Moose went back into pull mode, teams started using shifts again and Mike started going the other way again; his numbers started to climb.
I ask Moose if he will continue to go the other way once teams go back to playing him straight up and he laughs and says we’ll have to wait and see.
We talk swing mechanics and Mike says he’s emphasizing his hands more.
When a hitter pulls the bat through the zone with his body, his front shoulder flies open and his head goes with it. When you see Moose pop a ball up on the infield, there’s a decent chance that’s what happened. When a hitter uses his hands to take the bat to the ball, the front shoulder has a better chance of staying closed until contact is made.
After we talk about, it I sum up: “So you’re letting your hands lead the way?”
Mike responds with a fist bump and says: “You’re a smart guy—and I can’t believe I just said that.”
We both agree that I’ll do something dumb in the next five minutes and harmony will be restored to the universe.
August 30, 2015—Rays
Danny Duffy throws five innings and strikes out six batters, but uses 99 pitches to get the job done. The analytics guys love punchouts, but if a pitcher is racking up strikeouts he’s also racking up pitches—and that means he’ll come out of the game earlier than if he pitched to contact.
Which means a starting pitcher might have good numbers, but keeps putting his team in a bad spot by leaving the game early and exposing the team’s middle relievers.
Now let’s do some pitching math:
Say Ned Yost wants his starting pitcher to keep his pitch count under 100. 15 pitches per inning is about average. If Ned’s pitcher stays on track, 6 x 15 = 90 so he can throw six innings and then—assuming the Royals have the lead—Ned can go to Herrera/Davis/Holland for the seventh, eighth and ninth inning, but Danny throws all that off by throwing 32 pitches in the first inning.
So from the first inning on, Ned knows he has a problem unless Danny finds a way to throw a couple of quick innings; his pitch count will have him out of the game about an inning too early.
And then Ned Yost can’t go directly to Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland; the game’s tied so he’ll have to use someone else to throw the sixth. That someone is Luke Hochevar and Hochevar gives up a run and the Rays lead 3-2. And it all came apart when Danny Duffy threw 32 pitches in the first inning.
If you pay attention you can see this stuff coming.
August 31, 2015—Off Day
The Royals finish the month of August with 19 wins and 11 losses; their overall record is 80-50. They’ve got a month of baseball left and they now have to choose; do they assume they’re going to the playoffs and start resting people or do they keep the hammer down?
Give players too much time off and the team might lose its edge; keep going hard and the players might be exhausted by the time they reach October. The Royals come up with some innovative ways to rest their players in September, but will still put up their only losing month of the season.
And their first September loss comes against the Detroit Tigers.