2015 ROYALS—The Numbers Game

June 24, 2015—Mariners

In the bottom of the first inning Austin Jackson singles and Danny Duffy tries to pick him off first base six times.

Or does he?

I can think of at least five reasons a pitcher throws to first base that have nothing to do with picking off a runner:

1. The batter might reveal what he intends to do; bunt or swing away.

2. The runner might reveal what he intends to do; a runner who gets back easily wasn’t going anywhere, a runner who flinches and then gets back was leaning toward second.

3. The pitcher is showing the runner his “B” pickoff move in an attempt to get the runner to extend his lead, then the pitcher will attempt to pick him off with his “A” pickoff move.

4. The pitcher reaches the set position and feels uncomfortable about throwing the pitch; he wants to start over.

5. The catcher is bored.

That last one comes from Jason Kendall who tells me a story from his semi-distant past about a road game that was out of hand and he gave the pitcher the sign to pick (flicking the thumb like your tossing a coin) and the pitcher picked and because it was a road game, the crowd booed.

Which struck Kendall as funny.

He called the pickoff, but the pitcher got booed, so Jason did it again. And again. And again. And again. Jason just kept calling pickoff after pickoff while the crowd went nuts and screamed at the innocent pitcher while Jason sat back and enjoyed the scene he created.

Face it, baseball is the greatest sport in the world.

P.S. The Royals win 8-2.

Rusty Kuntz and Mitch Maier—2015

It’s early afternoon and I come out of the Royals dugout and Rusty Kuntz is standing at first base, talking with Mitch Maier.

If you’ve been paying attention you already know reporters aren’t supposed to walk out on the grass, so I yell at Rusty: “I can stay over here and then once you come off the field, ask you to repeat everything you’re saying to Mitch, or I can just come out there and listen.”

Nothing pays off like persistence (it can also result in a restraining order) but that’s how I end up standing at first base, getting a lesson on what to do if I ever get picked off first base.

Which probably won’t come up because I haven’t had any recent offers to play Big League baseball and if someone did let me play, I’d have to get to first base to get picked off, but if I ever do make it to first base (probably hit by another pitch) the odds of me getting picked off are excellent, so knowing what to do next might come in handy.

And a-way we go…

Let’s say you’re a base runner and you decide to steal second base.

After you take off for second base you still need to keep your eye on the pitcher to see what he does with the ball. If he throws home, put your head down and keep going. But…if he throws to first base, put your head down and keep going.

At this point you might be wondering why you watch the pitcher if you’re going to do the same thing no matter what the pitcher does with the ball and here’s the answer: the path you take to second base will change.

When a runner breaks for second base the first baseman does two things (at least theoretically and you often see this screwed-up):

1. The first baseman lets the pitcher know what’s happening by yelling something like “Runner!”

2. The first baseman takes a couple steps toward the mound.

That way, when the first baseman receives the throw from the pitcher he’s out of the base path and has a clear throwing lane to second base. So if you’re the runner who just got picked off, you veer into that throwing lane; take a path that puts you on the infield grass.

A good-throwing first baseman will probably still make the play. But a poor-throwing first baseman—and there are a whole bunch of them out there—might launch the ball into the outfield when he tries to throw around you. Paying attention to these little details is what makes a ballplayer—and a team—better.

So now you know what to do if you ever get picked off and you didn’t have to stand on the grass to find out.

The NBA Draft—2015

The NBA holds their draft and it reminds me of how often expectations exceed reality.

Despite all the hoopla (and I’ve never used that word before and hope to never use it again) some of the kids drafted may never play a single minute in the NBA and the ones who make it that far may not have much impact.

Baseball is no different.

When judging a young player’s worth, one of the more difficult categories to rate is “makeup” because you can’t put a radar gun on it; a kid’s personality can be hard to discern. And a kid’s makeup can change along with a kid’s opportunities.

Say Johnny Baseball lives with his parent in a small town, doesn’t have much money, goes to church every Sunday and has a girlfriend who says “no tongues” every time they kiss.

Johnny’s looks like the All-American boy because Johnny’s opportunities to make an ass out of himself are limited.

But give Johnny Baseball millions of dollars, his own condo and nice car. Move him away from his parents and his “no tongues” girlfriend, and have scantily clad and heavily tattooed women throw their phone numbers at him. (I once saw a woman throw a pack of gum to a ballplayer; her name and number were inside.) Now give Johnny minor league teammates that know they’re probably not going to make it the majors so they want to have their fun right now this minute and Johnny’s the one with a car and money in his pocket.

Is Johnny Baseball still an All-American boy? That nice, serious kid can turn into party hound in a heartbeat.

There are people who advocate tanking to get better draft picks, but no draft pick is a sure thing and everybody—including the draft picks – needs to remember that.

June 27, 2015—Athletics

Left-handed pitcher Scott Kazmir is starting the game for the A’s and left-handed hitter Mike Moustakas is playing third base for the Royals; in previous encounters Moose has hit just .143 off Kazmir.

When the Royals faced Kazmir back in April, Omar Infante sat, Christian Colon was in the lineup and went 2-for-3. Moustakas was 0-for-4, so it might seem like an easy decision: sit Moose and play Colon at third base against Kazmir.

But wait…as they say in the Ginzu Knife commercials…there’s more.

Like Moose hitting .375 over the last 14 days or the fact that he’s hitting much better against lefties this season. Which brings up an important question: which numbers matter?

There are a lot of numbers available these days and if you rummage through them long enough you can probably find a number that makes whatever case you want to make. Some numbers indicate Mike Moustakas ought to sit to against Kazmir, other numbers indicate he ought to play.

Keep that in mind when someone throws out a number that “proves” something. You can almost always find a different number that “proves” the opposite—and sometimes it’s not about the numbers at all.

You want Moose to be confident and think he can hit anybody, anywhere, anytime, but sit him and you’re telling him you don’t think he can hit Scott Kazmir.

Sitting a guy to gain an advantage in three plate appearances might prove to be a disadvantage over 162 games, depending on the guy. If you think Mike Moustakas will be better served over the long haul by sitting him, sit him. If you don’t want to disturb what Mike’s got going—and he’s hitting .327 coming into the game—play him. What Mike Moustakas does over a season is more important than what he does in a single game.

(By the way: Moose plays, goes 0-for-3, but drives in a run in a 3-2 Royals win.)

The two other Royals runs come after Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer pull off a double steal of third and second. That puts two runs in scoring position and Kendrys Morales drives them in.

And, as usual, there’s a story behind that double steal.

Rusty Kuntz says Scott Kazmir delivers the ball to home plate in 1.1 to 1.2 seconds with a runner on first base. But when he has a runner on second base, Kazmir takes his time and he gets the ball to home plate in 1.7 to 1.9 seconds.

The Royals know that if they get a fast runner on second base, they can steal third. Cain stealing third opens up second base and back at first base, Rusty tells Eric Hosmer to focus on Cain: “Don’t miss that train. Jump on it and get out of here.”

The A’s catcher—Josh Phegley—throws to second base to get Hosmer, but Kazmir’s slow delivery means Eric slides in safe. A Morales single later and the Royals have two runs.

When you see a first base coach holding a stopwatch, he’s checking the pitcher’s delivery times. If the stopwatch tells the runner to go, it might be the difference in a game—and against the Oakland A’s, it is.

June 29, 2015—Astros

The Royals start a three-game series against Houston by getting beat 6-1. Minute Maid Park is very deep in centerfield, but short in the corners; Royals pitchers have to be careful when they pitch inside or throw something off-speed and they’re not careful enough.

Joe Blanton gives up a homer on an inside fastball to Jose Altuve and Brandon Finnegan gives up another homer to Chris Carter when he throws Carter a changeup. At this point in the season Houston leads the league in home runs and these short corners are part of the reason.

Point of interest: you build your team based on your ballpark and those short corners mean the Astros can afford to play subpar outfield defenders in right and left. The K is bigger in the corners so the Royals need better defenders and would like to play as many playoff games in Kansas City as possible and hope their big ballpark exposes the other teams’ corner outfielders.

Keep that in mind because it’s going to come up again.

June 30, 2015—Astros

Houston Astros pitcher Dallas Keuchel throws eight shutout innings and gets the win. During Keuchel’s performance, a Royals fan—with no future whatsoever as a baseball scout—gets on Twitter and says Keuchel is “just not that good” and blames KC hitters for not doing better.

Keuchel will end the season 20-8, have a 2.48 ERA and win the American League Cy Young award; which is pretty impressive for a guy who’s “just not that good.”

Ask a fan what he thinks of a ballpark and he’ll probably talk about the seats, the concessions and what the park looks like, but ballplayers don’t care about any of that. They’ll talk about the clubhouse, the indoor batting cage, the equipment room, the weight room and the playing field and Houston’s playing field kind of sucks.

The architect got cute and added all kinds of short porches and weird angles and an incline in centerfield. Lorenzo Cain risks injury in the second game of the Astros series when he tries to run up that incline.

Astro’s DH Evan Gattis hits a baseball lopsided and sends it toward Tal’s Hill—the totally unnecessary incline. A funny thing happens when you’re running full speed and hit an incline; you fall flat on your face and that’s what happens to Lorenzo.

Because he’s a better athlete than most, Cain gets far enough up the hill to do a face plant into the outfield wall. Had the ball been a little more toward left field, Lorenzo’s face might have hit a flagpole because some idiot put one on the playing field.

The Houston Astros have announced they’re going to remove that hill and it can’t happen soon enough. A feature that can injure a ballplayer is not a good idea, no matter how entertaining fans find it.

BTW: Those odd quirks in old ballparks were necessary when team owners had to build ballparks on land they actually owned and cities weren’t inclined to tear up public streets just because a baseball team asked them to.

These days cities will condemn property and rebuild neighborhoods and throw the occasional virgin into nearby volcanoes to make sports teams happy, so the weird architectural quirks are totally unnecessary.

Somebody just thought they would look cool.

But ballplayers would prefer to play in a park that plays fair and Kauffman Stadium plays fair; no hills in center, no short porches, no odd angles that send a batted ball off in an entirely new direction. Hills in centerfield and angles all over the leftfield wall and flagpoles in play might make a game more entertaining, but it allows chance and ballpark designers to decide baseball games, not athletic skill.

The designers got a lot right when they built Kauffman Stadium (and if they build a new downtown ballpark, I wouldn’t bet on it happening twice).

The Royals are out-homered and out-walked by the Astros over the three-game series and get swept; they end the month on a down note. Kansas City has been swept in New York and Houston; the Yanks and Astros have ballparks that favor their style of play. If all three teams make it to the playoffs, home-field advantage will be a big deal.

Now Kansas City is headed to Minnesota, but the Twins have played surprisingly well and won’t be a pushover.