Analyzing analytics: pitch velocity

Plus: entertaining information on how pitchers avoid getting hit in the crotch

According to my calendar it’s Labor Day and nobody needs to take a break from politics more than me, so today let’s talk about baseball. And even if you find baseball boring, there’s going to be a story about pitchers getting hit in the crotch with line drives, so you probably want to stick around for that.

And away we go.

A pitcher throws a fastball and 96 pops up on our TV screens and we accept that the number is accurate and the pitch had a velocity of 96 mph.

But a few years ago the same pitch might have been measured at 94.

I was roaming around the internet looking for information on how pitch velocity was measured and came across a 2017 Deadspin article that explained what happened.

Up until 2017 MLB was using Pitchf/x to record pitch velocity, but then switched over to Statcast radar. Pitchf/x measured velocity from a set point 50 to 55 feet back from home plate and Statcast measures velocity right out of the pitcher’s hand.

OK, that last paragraph is a first-rate example of why a lot of people in the media accept the numbers presented to them because figuring out what goes into those numbers is a buttload of work. That previous paragraph raises some interesting questions, like:

• What’s Pitchf/x and how does it work?

• Why did they use a set point 50 to 55 feet back from home plate and why was it so imprecise?

• How does Statcast work?

• And just how much work constitutes a buttload?

Start down those internet rabbit holes and pretty soon you’re having tea with the Mad Hatter and listening to Grace Slick who I once ran into at the Kansas City airport – she’s shorter than you might think – and since that technical stuff is pretty boring let’s go straight to the bottom line:

Because Pitchf/x and Statcast measure pitches in different ways, Statcast velocities ended up being higher. And according to Deadspin the new system didn’t seem to be calibrated correctly for every ballpark, which meant some of the readings were off.

Before we accept what we see on our TV screens as gospel, we should all remember this stuff has to be set up and calibrated correctly and that doesn’t always happen.

Velocity vs. Perceived Velocity

But for now let’s assume the tech guys got the bugs ironed out and velocity is being measured the same way in every big league ballpark and the measurements are accurate. Even under ideal conditions if two pitchers throw 95 mph fastballs that doesn’t mean hitters have the same amount of time to react.

If one pitcher is 5 feet, 11 inches tall and the next pitcher is 6 feet, 4 inches tall there’s a good chance the 6-4 guy is going to release his 95 mph fastball closer to home plate than the 5-11 guy and that means hitters have less time to react to the 6-4 guy’s fastball even though both pitches were measured at 95 mph.

To give them credit, the tech guys have taken note of the difference in release points and if you really want to dig down into the numbers you can find “Extension” and “Perceived Velocity” which is velocity with extension factored in.

The difference in extension and release points helps explain why one guy is is blowing hitters away and the other guy is getting lit up like Times Square on New Year’s Eve. But “Extension” isn’t the only thing that changes “Perceived Velocity.”

Now let’s say one pitcher hides the ball well and the other pitcher doesn’t.

Hiding the ball means keeping it behind your body so the hitter can’t see it for as long as possible. Pitchers who fall off to the side of the mound tend to expose their arm and the ball early and that gives the hitter a better chance of timing the pitch.

They can see it coming.

The pitcher who hides the ball until the last possible moment makes hitters feel like the ball is on them more quickly because they didn’t see it early.

BTW: Classic pitching mechanics advise the pitcher to finish squared up to home plate in a good fielding position, but a lot of pitchers tend to finish sideways and one of the reasons for that is so they don’t take a line drive in the crotch.

Protective cups are uncomfortable and a surprising number of pitchers don’t wear them. I say “a surprising number” because I’m surprised anybody decides to skip wearing a cup. If I was a ballpark beer vendor I’d probably wear a cup, but that’s just me.

Anyway…

If a pitcher finishes facing home plate his head and crotch are exposed; finish sideways and the pitcher can quit worrying about his crotch and just has to keep the ball off his head. Getting hit anywhere with a line drive hurts, but if you don’t get hit in the head it won’t kill you.

(See? I told you this was going to entertaining.) 

One of the complaints players have about analytics is the tendency to ignore and/or discount anything they don’t know how to measure. And as far as I know they still don’t know how to measure hiding the ball, but until they can do that they won’t know everything worth knowing about velocity, perceived velocity and reaction time.

Adding and subtracting velocity

Let’s say a pitcher’s fastball tops out at 97 mph; even though he can throw it harder if he wants to, the pitcher might choose to work at 94.

That way when he gets into a fastball count – 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, maybe 3-2…counts where the hitter expects to see a fastball – the pitcher can add or subtract velocity from that 94-mph fastball the hitters have been seeing.

Instead of 94-94-94 the hitter gets 94-94-91 or maybe 94-94-97.

The hitter gears up for that 94-mph fastball he’s been dealing with and those few miles an hour added or subtracted throws off his timing.

Adding and subtracting velocity is more common among starting pitchers because they might face a lineup three times and need a way to disrupt timing. Relievers – especially the nasty ones at the back of the bullpen—might throw gas on every pitch; here’s 98, see if you can hit it.

Relievers can get away with this because they’ll probably only see a hitter once, although that can change over a three-game series.

Slide steps

In a slide step delivery the pitcher barely picks his front foot off the ground and slides toward home plate. This move was created to get the pitcher’s front foot down sooner which gets the ball into the catcher’s mitt more quickly and keep runners from stealing bases.

But the slide step delivery can screw up the pitcher’s release point.

Because the front foot gets down early, the pitcher’s arm isn’t in the usual spot when that front foot hits the ground and that might cause the pitcher to release the ball too soon and that can make the ball stay up in the zone.

Pay attention and you’re going to see some big hits given up when the pitch was thrown out of a slide step.

It’s one of the reasons to steal bases; it forces the pitcher to rush his delivery and can result in the batter getting better pitches to hit. But since pitches thrown out of a slide step aren’t recorded, the base stealers don’t get credit for helping the hitters hit home runs.

Some pitchers have figured out that a slide step delivery also screws up the hitter’s reaction time and they’ll do a slide step without a runner on base. Anything to change the rhythm of the pitcher’s delivery.

Today I picked pitch velocity because it would seem to be one of the easiest things to measure and yet, when you look into it, it isn’t. That doesn’t mean we should throw the numbers out – they provide interesting and valuable information – but it does mean we shouldn’t accept those numbers without question.

Now have a nice Labor Day and if you don’t have anything better to do, might I suggest watching a ballgame.