Watching Baseball: The Count

Opening Day is tomorrow (Yankees play the Giants) so now seems like a good time to talk about what baseball fans can look for this season and we’ll start with a story about me being a dope.

Come to think of it; waaay too many of my stories start that way, nevertheless…

So I meet Clint Hurdle at a Kansas City Royals Fantasy Camp and he invites me and a friend to visit him in Williamsport, Pennsylvania were he’s managing the New York Mets Double A team, the Bills.

Like a lot of American males (in my experience, men are much worse about this than women) I assumed I knew baseball, but quickly found out I didn’t know jack and/or shit. After Clint got fined and ridiculed for having a friend who read a book DURING A NO-HITTER (in my defense, it was a really good book) and realizing I was adding absolutely nothing to the postgame dinner conversations, I decided maybe I should start paying attention.

OK, good start.

Now what should I pay attention to?

Luckily, I was around players and coaches who could explain things to me and, turns out, if you want to understand what’s happening and what’s about to happen, you have to pay attention to the count.

Fastball Counts

There are 12 possible counts in baseball and here they are: 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 3-1, 0-2, 1-2, 2-2 and 3-2.

Some are considered “fastball counts” (2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 and sometimes 3-2) and those are the counts where a pitcher needs to throw a strike and a fastball is his best chance of doing that and here are two things it’s helpful to know:

1. Generally speaking, fastballs are the easiest pitch to throw for a strike because they’re relatively straight.

2. Generally speaking, fastballs are the easiest pitch to hit because they’re relatively straight.

We’re going to use the Toronto Blue Jays to illustrate how the count changes the game and I picked the Blue Jays because in 2025 they had the best team batting average in baseball, but the patterns we’ll see with the Jays are—to some degree—true of every team in the Big Leagues.

Ready?

And Awaaay We Go…

As a team the Blue Jays hit .265 overall, now here’s what the Blue Jays hit in fastball counts:

• 2-0: .347

• 2-1: .337

• 3-1: .391

• 3-0: .500

Let’s assume I transcribed those numbers right, because at these prices I’m not double-checking, but either way you can see the Jays hit a lot better in fastball counts. If you give a Big League hitter a fastball in a fastball count—when he’s expecting a fastball— he’s probably going to get a pretty good swing at it.

So if you’re a pitcher you want to avoid those counts and if you find yourself in one anyway, it would help if you can throw something besides a fastball for a strike.

Somewhere in the ballpark or on your TV screen there will be a radar gun readout and while there are tons of exceptions to this (get used to it) any pitch in the 90s is probably a fastball and any pitch below 90 is probably an off-speed pitch and if the pitcher has two types of pitches in the 90s the hitters are probably going to have a rough day. (Also; don’t trust the pitch identification shown on the scoreboard or your TV because that’s wrong all the time.)

Pay attention and if the pitcher can throw anything off-speed for strikes in fastball counts, he’s more likely to have a good game, but if he’s stuck throwing fastballs in fastball counts, there’s a decent chance he’s going to get lit up.

And Now Some of Those Exceptions I Warned You About

So the pitcher’s in a 2-1 count and if he throws a fastball it better be well-located and smart pitchers can use a hitter’s aggressiveness against him because the hitter thinks he’s getting a fastball.

When the hitter sees it come straight out of the pitcher’s hand (apparently breaking pitches appear to come up out of a pitcher’s hand…at least that’s what good hitters say…all I ever saw was a variety of blurs) the hitter might start his swing even though the fastball’s not a strike.

Pitchers who add movement to their fastballs (they do that by changing grips and the pressure on their fingertips) have a better chance of getting away with a fastball in a fastball count because then the fastball moves down and/or sideways and might miss the bat’s sweet spot. Smart pitchers also “add and subtract” velocity so a hitter’s been seeing 95, 95, 95 and then gets 92 or 98 and that throws off his timing.

And since everybody’s now trying to get the ball in the air and hit home runs, fastballs “higher than high”—above the strike zone—have become a popular pitch.

Also…

There’s shake for show which means the pitcher shakes his head like he doesn’t want to throw the pitch that was just called, so if you’re a hitter in a 2-0 count and the pitcher shakes his head, you might think “he doesn’t want to throw me a fastball” so you look off-speed, but then the pitcher throws a fastball anyway.

And…

Let’s say in your last at-bat you hit a home run on a 2-0 fastball, so you’re thinking “he won’t throw me that again” and he throws a 2-0 fastball anyway and you look like a dope when you stand there flat-footed and watch it go past.

But wait, there’s more…

A pitcher can pull that repeating-a-hittable-pitch trick on a smart hitter who thinks, but if the pitcher tries that trick with a dumbbell, the dumbbell doesn’t remember he got a 2-0 fastball in his last at-bat and if you throw him another 2-0 fastball he’s going to hit another homer.

See?

Right about here is where people who thought they wanted to watch a ballgame with me, contemplate suicide or homicide, depending on how many beers they’ve had and the odds they can push me out of the upper deck without anyone noticing.

Even Counts

The first pitch of an at-bat can be a good hitting count because pitchers want to get ahead and avoid fastball counts where everyone’s anticipating a fastball, so they throw a fastball before one’s expected or maybe a “get-me-over” breaking pitch (one with less break, so the pitcher can control it) and here’s what the Blue Jays hit on the first pitch:

• 0-0: .311

So why not swing at the first pitch all the time?

Because hitters are still making outs almost 70% of the time and they’re doing it on one pitch, which means the opposing pitcher can pitch longer. And if the first guy makes an out on the first pitch, he kinda ratfucks the guy behind him because the second guy probably figures he has to take at least one pitch and the pitcher knows that, so he’s probably going to throw a fastball right down the middle for strike one.

Also: you can’t do anything all the time because scouts are watching and paying attention and if you start swinging at first pitches all the time, pitchers are going to quit throwing you first-pitch fastballs.

Now here’s how much difference that first pitch makes:

• After 1-0 the Jays hit .280 which would be the best team average in baseball last year.

• After 0-1 the Jays hit .243 which would be the 21st best team average in baseball last year.

When the pitcher’s ahead in the count he can throw all his pitches, when the pitcher’s behind in the count he’s limited to the pitches he can consistently throw for strikes. (Tons of exceptions to that last sentence, but generally speaking, that’s the way it works.)

So 0-0 is an even count and here are the other even counts and what the Blue Jays hit in them:

• 1-1: .338

• 2-2: .182

And now—because you need to think about it—2-2 seems like an even count, but the pitcher doesn’t have to throw a strike and the hitter can’t afford to take one, which gets us to two-strike counts, but before that; 1-1 is a huge count because after the next pitch it’ll either be 2-1 (.337 Blue Jays average) or 1-2 (.200 Blue Jays average)and once you get to two-strike counts, batting averages go way down.

But first…

Zoning Down

OK, so you see a hitter take what looks like a very hittable pitch and think “WTF?” but there may be a reason that happened and here it is:

Hitters can’t hit everything.

Try to hit the fastball and the breaking pitch and you’ll be late on the fastball and early on the curve (in baseball slang; “in-between”) so hitters need to “zone down” and “sit on a pitch.”

Look for a specific pitch in a specific spot and if you don’t get that pitch, take the pitch you do get. If you swing at a pitch you weren’t looking for, you’re probably going to be early or late and won’t do much with it, but all this changes—or at least should change—with two strikes.

Two Strike Counts and What The Blue Jays Hit In Them

• 0-2: .181

• 1-2: .200

• 2-2: .182

• 3-2: .207

The numbers drop way off in every two-strike count because the pitcher can throw any pitch he chooses to (unless the count’s 3-2, but even then it depends on who’s on base, who’s on deck, the score, the inning, the prime interest rate and the relative humidity) but the batter has to protect the strike zone and swing at anything close and in two-strike counts, pitchers like to throw “chase pitches” (pitches that start in the zone, then move out and the pitchers wants the batter to chase them) or “put-away pitches” (the nastiest shit the pitcher throws and he saves it for two-strike counts so nobody sees it that often).

In the Good Old Days when Men were Men and Sheep Were Nervous, a batter in a two-strike count would change his approach. He might choke up for better bat control, change his position in the box or change what he was looking for. Basically: hitters went from trying to drive the ball to just trying to get the ball in play.

That attitude has changed, but before we get to that…

The Decisive Pitch

We tend to think the most important pitch of an at-bat was the final pitch—the strikeout, the walk, the ball put in play—but players don’t think that way; sometimes the most important pitch came before the final pitch of a plate appearance and we’ll use the 1-1 pitch to demonstrate:

If the pitcher throws a 1-1 strike the count’s 1-2 and the Jays hit .200 in that count.

If the pitcher throws a 1-1 ball the count’s 2-1 and the Jays hit .337 in that count.

I once talked to Jason Vargas about giving up a home run and Jason said he wasn’t upset about the home run pitch; he was upset about the pitch before the home run pitch because it put him in a fastball count and when he threw a fastball, the hitter took advantage.

Why All of This Might Not Matter

According to a paper written by a college baseball coach (I’ve forgotten his name and he might not want it brought up anyway) analytics were first embraced by fantasy baseball players because they were looking for an advantage when drafting fantasy players.

And that led to a misunderstanding:

That Real Baseball teams could be formed the same way; just pick the players with the best numbers which, if you don’t think about it too much and haven’t ever been on a Real Baseball team, might seem logical.

But as our Anonymous College Baseball Coach pointed out; Fantasy Baseball is won by individual performances, Real Baseball is won by team performance.

In Fantasy Baseball you never want a player to use a plate appearance for the good of the team and you’re not interested in that kind of player; so no bunting, no moving runners over, no taking pitches while someone steals a base. And that selfish style of play has become popular in the Big Leagues.

If home runs get you paid—and they do—try to hit one with every swing and you now see guys still trying to hit a home run with a runner on third and one out. Guys are swinging for their fences no matter the situation, which is one of the reasons strikeouts are way up.

Getting a ball in play is no longer valued, which is really moronic if you want to win because balls in play move runners and make shitty defenders try to field the ball and after the Royals won the 2015 World Series because of some lousy New York Mets defense and baseball guru Rusty Kuntz was asked what he thought about that, Rusty said:

“We showed the value of getting the ball in play.”

Nevertheless, some analytics advocates decided a strikeout is no worse than any other kind of out and hitters should make no two-strike adjustment and just keep swinging out their asses, which explains why strikeouts are going up and hits are going down and baseball is in a panic because fans find the game boring.

My all-time favorite hitter is Tony Gwynn (I figured if someone that fat could hit, I could, too—I was wrong about that) averaged 29 strikeouts every 162 games. For comparison’s sake: last season, 149 Big League players struck out 100 or more times and two players struck out 200 times and it took Tony’s first seven seasons to strike out 203 times.

Would you rather watch Tony Gwynn get 200 hits in a season or Shohei Ohtani carry his bat back to the dugout 187 times and far too many people prefer watching Ohtani swing for the fences. (OK, let’s face it, Ohtani is amazing and he’s still got a .282 lifetime average, but think what it could be if he didn’t strike out so much.)

Today’s Lesson

Like pretty much everything else: what you get out of baseball depends on what you put into it and if you can’t be bothered to pay attention, you’re going to be like a lot of fans who only find it interesting when someone hits a homer or starts a fight and here’s what Hall of Famer Leo Durocher had to say about that:

“Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand.”

On the other hand, Leo was widely considered a dick and here’s what Branch Rickey had to say about Leo:

“He had the ability of taking a bad situation and making it immediately worse.”

And now you can make a boring ballgame immediately worse by explaining the importance of counts to people who don’t give a flying fuck, but do you really want people like that for friends?

Enjoy Opening Day.