Recently, a reader that we’ll call John mostly because his name’s John asked me if I’d given up on writing about the Royals and the answer to that question is no. But I’m no longer out at the ballpark and know a lot less about this current team which means I have a lot less to say and I believe there should be at least some relationship between how much you know and how much you talk and beliefs like that explain why I haven’t been offered a job on sports-talk radio.
True story: on one of my very few appearances on sports-talk radio I refused to speculate and kept batting down questions that required it and afterwards the disappointed host said, “Lee, we do a lot of speculation on this show” and I said, “I know.”
Generally speaking I was considered a shitty guest and there are people who have invited me to children’s birthday parties who share that opinion.
But the timing of John’s question was interesting because I’ve been thinking about the 2015 Royals and considering writing something about them and by “something” I mean a book’s worth and we’ll talk more about that before we’re through.
Then John asked if I’d read Sam McDowell’s article in Sunday’s Kansas City Star (I did) and whether I had a reaction (I do).
Sam’s article was interesting reading and made me think of the 2015 team because those guys played the game much differently than the 2025 team.
But First…
To understand what Sam wrote about and I’m about to write about and baseball in general, you need to know that the easiest pitch to throw for a strike is a fastball (because they’re relatively straight) but unfortunately for pitchers who throw them the easiest pitch to hit is also a fastball (because they’re relatively straight).
That being the case:
When pitchers fall behind in the count and have to throw a strike (2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 and depending on the situation, 3-2) the fastball becomes the percentage pitch and hitters know it’s the pitch they’re most likely to get so batting averages go up in those counts.
Those counts are called “fastball counts” or “hitters counts” or, if you’re a pitcher, “counts that will get you sent back to Omaha.”
Timeout for Exceptions
Unfortunately for those of us who like to keep things simple, in baseball there are always exceptions and this case is no exception which makes me think we should keep things moving before you realize I just contradicted myself.
Pitchers who can consistently throw their off-speed stuff for strikes have an advantage because then hitters can’t count on getting fastballs in fastball counts, but some pitchers can get away with throwing fastballs in fastball counts especially if their first name is “Nolan” and their last name is “Ryan.”
So as we continue, remember: there are always exceptions and there are no exceptions to that rule and with that kind of logic I can’t believe Donald Trump hasn’t put me in charge of something.
And now back to baseball.
The 2025 Royals
At the time this was written the 2025 Royals team batting average was .243, ninth-best in the American League. But if they can get into a 2-0 count, that team batting average goes up to .342.
But according to Sam’s article just 11.8% of their plate appearance reach a 2-0 count (tied for third-fewest in baseball) and only 6.6% of their plate appearances reach a 3-1 count (the fewest in baseball) and Sam I can’t thank you enough for doing this research so I don’t have to and if you really want to help out, my grass needs mowing.
The conundrum in Sam’s article is that to get to those counts you obviously have to take the first pitch and the Royals do that 71% of the time, more often than any team in the American League.
So what’s going wrong?
If you do anything 71% of the time—take the first pitch, chase sliders in the dirt, get fucked up on off days—somebody’s going to notice and take advantage and apparently opposing pitchers and their pitching coaches have picked up on the Royals passive first-pitch approach so opposing pitchers are being very aggressive on the first pitch (throw it down the middle, 71% of the time the Royals won’t swing) and no team in baseball falls behind in the count 0-1 more often than the Royals and once again, thanks, Sam, and when you’re done with the grass, those bushes need trimming.
After going 0-1 the Royals team batting average drops to .232.
And despite taking the first pitch 71% of the time the Royals are dead last in walks and they’re number two at swinging at pitches out of the zone so they’re passive on the first pitch and aggressive after that and if you want to hear a theory about how that works you could do a lot worse than listening to former Royal Wade Davis.
What Wade Davis Said About Strike One
Back when Wade was still with the Royals and I was still with the Star we were sitting in the dugout and he showed me a hitter’s heat map. Heat maps show the strike zone divided up into sections and the locations they hit well are in red and the locations they hit poorly are in blue and Wade said sometimes, depending on the hitter, he’d go right at their hot zone with the first pitch.
When I asked why he’d do that Wade said: “Because they don’t think you will.”
Passive hitters got caught flat-footed when Wade went right at them.
And once Wade got ahead 0-1 he thought a lot of at-bats were over because very few hitters are comfortable hitting with two strikes so they start chasing pitches with just one strike. With two strikes the 2025 Royals hit .191 so taking the first pitch, when everyone knows you’re taking the first pitch, is putting them in a hole they rarely climb out of.
What Jason Kendall Said About Hitting
Jason Kendall has the fourth-most hits—2,195—of any catcher in baseball history (dude really needs to be in the Hall of Fame mostly because he’d throw an insane party and I’d be invited) and one day I picked up his 2,000th hit bat and said getting 2,000 hits was pretty impressive and Jason said: “18,000 of them were on pitches right down the middle.”
When Jason was behind the plate he wanted hitters guessing—what pitch is coming next, is it going to be a fastball, is it going to be a curve, did I remember to lock my car when I got to the ballpark—but at the plate Jason didn’t guess.
He looked for mistake pitches in the middle of the plate and if they were mistake fastballs they’d go to the opposite field and if they were mistake curves he’d pull them and it was Jason’s belief professional hitters make a living on mistake pitches:
“All that other shit is hard to hit.”
Which is a message maybe the Royals hitters need to hear because once again, according to Sam, they take “meatballs” (pitches down the middle) more frequently than league average.
And from my intermittent observation (meaning when I can get the Fan Duel sports channel to work and right now it wants me to log in again—for the fourth time) Royals hitters will foul off a lot of mistake pitches which tends to happen when you’re looking for too many different pitches in too many parts of the zone.
Try to hit the inside fastball and the outside cutter and your timing’s off when you get served a meatball.
Zone down: focus on the parts of the zone you hit well and when you get a pitch in that zone, don’t miss it. (Which sounds incredibly easy coming from a guy who struggled to hit in a Men’s Over-30 League, but I know a lot of good hitters and that’s what they told me and I believe them.)
Before we go:
Jason Kendall took a lot of first pitches, but every once in a while would hack right away because he wanted to “change the scouting report.” He didn’t want anybody getting too comfortable throwing a fastball down Main Street.
Jason was avoiding what appears to be happening to the 2025 Royals.
So What About Those 2015 Royals?
In 2015 analytics advocates were convinced walks and home runs were the keys to winning ballgames (they may still believe that, we don’t hang out in the same bars) so hitters had to be very selective and ignore hittable pitches that couldn’t be hit for a home run and for most hitters that meant pitches out over the plate that they couldn’t pull with authority.
Both Dayton Moore and Ned Yost deserve a lot of credit because according to Moneyball, managers were there to be the hand puppets of the front office which explains how a lot of them got and kept their jobs.
That was the trend in 2015, but despite the opinions expressed by non-ballplayers in Moneyball, Dayton advocated giving power away; Dayton gave it to Ned, Ned gave it to the coaches and the coaches gave it to the players.
So in an era when everyone was convinced walks and home runs were the keys to winning, Royals hitting coach Dale Sveum said fuck that: in this park we’re not going to hit a lot of home runs and if pitchers aren’t worried about home runs they tend to be ultra-aggressive so we won’t walk either and hitting in the Big Leagues is hard enough without taking hittable first-pitch fastballs.
The Royals went to two consecutive World Series while being at the bottom of the barrel in walks and home runs.
Dayton turned Ned loose and Ned turned Dale loose and Dale turned the 2015 Royals loose and while the best team average in baseball was Detroit’s—.270 with a .420 slugging percentage—when the 2015 Royals put the first pitch in play they hit .317 and slugged .491.
In 2015 Eric Hosmer said when a coach tells you to swing the bat it’s an easy sale and Royals hitters talked about having a better mindset—quit guessing and smoke the first good pitch you see.
Opposition pitchers complained that they couldn’t get ahead of Royals hitters and when I asked Kurt Suzuki (a pretty good catcher himself) what he told his pitchers before facing the Royals, Kurt said he told his pitchers to forget strikeouts. The Royals (only one team in baseball struck out less often) aren’t going to be at the plate long enough to strike out or walk.
They’re coming right at you.
Today’s Message
I’m definitely not advocating that the 2025 Royals copy the 2015 Royals because I don’t know the 2025 hitters or their personalities or what their coaches are telling them, but what I definitely am saying is there’s more than one way to skin a cat, which is a fucked-up cliché probably thought up by Joseph Mengele or Hannibal Lecter during their high school years.
Nevertheless…
One of the most irritating things about Moneyball fans (and there was a lot to choose from) was their conviction that they knew the right way to play baseball and everyone should play the same way when in reality there are a lot of ways to approach the game and the 2015 Royals proved that by zigging when everyone else zagged.
I couldn’t tell you what the 2025 Royals need to do, but I can tell you how the 2015 Royals won a World Series and it wasn’t be letting hittable first pitches go by.
P.S.
As I mentioned at the beginning of this essay I’ve recently been thinking about writing about that 2015 team because people still love those guys and it’s the 10-year anniversary.
But to do it right I’d need to post a short essay almost every day (I’d still post all the regular stuff) between now and the end of the baseball season, but a lot of funny and/or interesting behind-the-scenes stuff happened and I have a lot of stories that never made it into print and if that sounds interesting to you let me know.
And, Sam, I was going to end this essay by suggesting you wash my car—another bad joke in a lifetime full of them—but in reality you should just keep writing interesting articles for those of us who like to watch the Royals and try to understand what’s happening and why it’s happening.
I’ll take my Toyota to the car wash myself.